Abstract I n this paper, the behavior of the real oil price and OPEC and non-OPEC oil production during 1973-2013 are modelled. Interactions among OPEC, non-OPEC oil production, global oil consumption, and the real price of crude oil are estimated using a Structural VAR model (SVAR). After providing evidence for the structural breaks in oil price in 1996, the results indicate that, ac...

This paper analyzes the response of international oil producers to demand-induced changes in the real price of oil during 1975–2011. The goal is to disentangle fluctuations in OPEC and non-OPEC production and to derive consistent estimates of the short-run price elasticity of crude oil supply at the country level. I find that oil producers hardly respond to demand shocks within the same month, ...

In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers, notably US shale oil, out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors th...

In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors th...

In this paper, we propose novel decision support system (DSS) named OPEC-DSS to support OPEC’s decisions on oil production level. OPEC-DSS is based on two important factors in oil prices; the first is OPEC oil production level (OPEC-PL) and the second is USA oil imports level (USA-IL). The OPEC-DSS support the analysers and decision-makers in three following issues: 1) OPEC-DSS can propose the ...

The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regio...

This study revisits the OPEC cartel hypothesis using a case study. A test is conducted to see if Venezuela has its production Granger cause its OPEC quota or whether the OPEC quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. The results show both occur at different times. In the short run, OPEC’s oil production quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. However, shortly a...

Building on the political economy literature, we develop a conceptual model and apply it to explain the OPEC pricing behavior. We model OPEC as a cartel-of-nations where politician use two instruments: production quotas and domestic fuel consumption subsidies. Our model explains the wedge between domestic fuel prices in OPEC countries and in the rest of the world. The empirical estimates show t...

We estimate models that identify the economic and organizational determinants of crude oil production by individual OPEC nations. To clarify the interpretation of econometric results, we model production with specifications that resolve the statistical ordering of variables and estimate models with techniques that can cope with stochastic trends in the time series. We also analyze the short-run...